No No No to Kyle Orton

Michael Lombardi says the Redskins are pursuing Kyle Orton. A cool, calm, rational and advanced stats based analysis suggests this would be a terrible idea, and that in fact Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman are interchangeable in terms of their (questionable) contributions at the QB position.

When evaluating QBs, I like the statistic Win Probability Added/Game (WPA/G) because it not only captures how well QBs play, but it takes the 'game manager' factor into account. For example, throwing for 8 yards is worth more on 3rd-and-7 than on 3rd-and-15, and throwing a TD pass in a close game is worth more than in garbage time.

This year, Orton struggled with a below-average WPA/G of .01, which ranks him 24th in the league. Interestingly, Rex Grossman was right behind Orton, ranked 25th with a WPA/G of .00. To put this in context, top 10 QBs are usually between 0.2 and 0.4. For example, Tom Brady (.41) and Aaron Rodgers (.39) were 1st and 2nd in the league, and at a WPA/G of .13 there was a three-way tie for 10th between Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Because Orton had to adjust to a new offense mid-year, which may have limited his production, I also looked at last year. It turns out that Orton's 2010 WPA/G was also .01, which was good for 23rd in the league.

In short, there is no reason to think Kyle Orton would be a step up from Rex Grossman. There's also no reason to believe Kyle Orton will ever be a top 10 or even top 15 QB. The message for Skins management is clear: Just say NO to Kyle Orton.