Sunday, November 4, 2012

A 3-6 Record: What's Happening?

Skins lose a fairly ugly game to the Panthers, and have looked ugly two weeks in a row. What's going on?  In short: 1) film study by teams against RGIII, 2) very poor receiver play, and 3) a struggling defense.

But there's also hope.

  1. In early September this blog predicted RGIII's production would "drop-off for the second half of the season" once teams had a chance to study film on RGIII's preferences and tendencies.  There's some evidence of this. Both the Steelers' and Panthers' rushers have made a point to keep RGIII in the pocket, and the Panthers were clearly sitting on RGIII's favorite passing play in which he fakes the hand-off and throws quickly about 8 yards over the middle. 
  2. Receivers are just flat-out playing poorly.  Numerous drops last week and this week, of course in part because the Skins' top pass catchers Pierre Garcon and Fred Davis are injured.
  3. The Skins' defense is terrible.  They give up huge chunks of yards in both the rushing and passing games.  Against the Panthers they seemed to only stop the Panthers when the Panthers dropped catchable 3rd-down passes.  Sure, poor play is in part due to injuries to top pass rusher Orakpo and the absence of Carriker, and the absence of two starters (Merriweather and Jackson) in the secondary.  But it's also the case that Jim Haslett specializes in running sub-par defenses.

So is there hope?  There are many signs of hope for next year.
  1. RGIII is the real deal, mentally and physically.  As he continues to mature and adjust to the NFL, he will simply be able to do too much too well for defenses to stop him by game-planning for his tendencies.
  2. Fred Davis and (presumably) Pierre Garcon will return from injuries and give RGIII top-tier receiving targets.
  3. Orakpo's return will give the Skins a better pass rush, and Merriweather and Jackson will make sure the secondary has starting-level talent.
  4. Alfred Morris.  This blog saw something special in Alfred Morris after just the 2nd preseason game, but at the time we only said he would surpass Evan Royster on the depth chart.  Little did we know he would turn into the next Stephen Davis -- a smart, tough runner with great anticipation and vision who is hard to tackle.  

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