Skins vs. Bear: The Great, the Good, and the Not-So-Good

The Skins beat a solid team, and hope remains that the Skins can still make something of this season. Still, today's wild win against the Bears had almost as many lows as highs.

The Great

• Jordan Reed.  The Skins rookie tight end out of Florida not only had 9 catches for 134 yards and a TD, but 0 drops (which cannot be said for the Skin's core of veteran receivers).  
• Rushing Game.  More than 200 yards on the ground between Alfred Morris, RGIII, and Roy Helu.

Skins vs. Eagles: The Great, the Good, and the Not-So-Good

The game was a mess, and I'm ready to move on, so let's get this over with.

The Great

• Ryan Kerrigan.  7 tackles, a sack, and a huge forced fumble that translated to 7 points.  Hopefully he passes his concussion test and stays healthy.
• Kai Forbath's Kickoffs.  Forbath, who struggled on kickoffs all of last year and all of pre-season, kicked 3 touchbacks on 4 tries.  Touchbacks are each worth an average of more than 10 yards on field position, so this is important long-term.
• Perry Riley.  Riley had a sack, a fumble recovery, and a thousand tackles.  

Four Observations From Pre-Season Game 3: Skins vs. Bills

It's Skins vs. Buffalo in the 3rd game of the pre-season.  The stakes are low, but there is still much to be learned about the team. Below are 4 observations about RB depth, kickoffs, turnovers, and backup QBs.  

Skins vs. Seahawks: The Great, The Good, and The Not-So-Good

Against tradition, we start with the not-so-good.

The Not-So-Good

• Mike Shanahan.  Inexcusable, reckless, and stupid to let RGIII play so long.  
• Ryan Kerrigan.  Several times he gave up the edge allowing Russell Wilson to make a big play.

The Good

• Alfred Morris.  He ran hard and well as usual, too bad he didn't get more chances.  

Skins vs. Eagles: The Great, The Good, and the Not-So-Good

The Great

• London Fletcher.  After struggling with injuries London appears to be back. Today he notches 10 solo tackles and a huge INT.
• Barry Cofield.  He barely shows up in the box score, but his good play allows others to make plays.  Case in point, he tipped the ball that resulted in London Fletcher's INT.  
• Santana Moss.  Only two receptions, but a beauuutiful TD pass dragging his left foot just in bounds on what was a key 3rd down play.  Fantastic to have Santana contributing like this. 

Skins vs. Browns: The Great, The Good, and the Not-So-Good

By virtue of tie-breakers, the Skins occupy 1st place in the NFC East.  A good day.

The Great

• Kyle Shanahan.  Good game-plan, better adjustments.  The Browns committed to stopping the stretch run play, Shanahan countered by repeatedly faking the stretch run and giving Kirk Cousins time to throw.  
• Kirk Cousins.  After his poor start, Cousins went 25/31, for 300+ yard, and 2 TDs. Cousins is not just a rookie, he's a rookie who didn't get many practice reps with the first team until this past week.  Yet, he looked poised, successfully threw both touch passes and lasers, and made a number of great reads and throws under pressure. He also distributed the ball to 8 different Skins receivers. Impressive.

Alfred Morris and Fumbling

Alfred Morris has been phenomenal, already accumulating more than 1,200 yards this season at about 5 yards per carry.  But he's almost fumbled in each of the last two games, and 4 times on the season, which raises the question.  Is Alfred Morris fumble-prone?

I know we all want the answer to be 'no', especially given the many wonderfully positive story lines this season.  But let's be adults and take an objective look at the data, focusing on his college football career.

In college, Morris had a tendency to fumble.

Youth Everywhere ... And That's a Good Thing

With so much focus on RGIII, it's easy to miss that no fewer than 12 rookies and 2nd year players are making major contributions up and down this Skins team.  Today's win against the Ravens is a great example.

Rookies

• RGIII.  We'll start with the obvious, he's re-writing rookie record books.
• Kirk Cousins.  Makes several key plays in the comeback win, including a pass for a first down, a TD pass in the final seconds of regulation, and a QB sneak for the game-tying 2-point conversion.
• Kai Forbath.  14/14 on FGs this season, including two long FGs and the game-winning FG today.

Skins vs. Ravens: The Great, The Good, and the Not-So-Good

Tremendous concern for RGIII's knee, but a tremendous come-from-behind win with key contributions from many.

The Great

• Ryan Kerrigan. Had two HUGE QB pressures.  One led directly to Flacco's INT, the other prevented Flacco from completing a 2nd quarter TD pass to a wide open Ravens receiver.  Huge impact that won't show up in his stat-line.
• Kai Forbath.  His kick-offs are a concern, too returnable and occasionally out-of-bounds.  But he's made up for that by being perfect on FGs for the season, including two long FGs plus the game-winner in OT today against the Ravens.  Amazing accuracy, unfazed in the clutch.

Skins vs. Giants: The Great, The Good, and the Not-So-Good

The Skins beat three consecutive NFC East opponents.  I checked my calendar, it's indeed 2012 and not 1991.

The Great

• Kyle Shanahan.  He wasn't on the field, but his impact loomed large.  Shanahan is a master at designing different plays that begin out of the same formation, and a master at disguising what's coming next.  The Giants' defense was kept off balance for much of the game. 
• Pierre Garcon.  Just a few weeks ago it seemed Garcon could miss the season. Tonight he had 8 receptions for 106 yards and a TD. 

Alfred Morris Is Not Terrell Davis, But They Sure Look Alike On Paper

Alfred Morris is not the next Terrell Davis, he's the first Alfred Morris.  To my eyes he's distinguished by having elite vision and anticipation.  He doesn't just see the holes, he sees them before they open up, and slashes right through.

But I want to compare Morris to Terrell Davis anyway, because the similarities are uncanny. Obviously both are hand-picked Shanahan backs drafted in the 6th round.  But there's more.

For example, both are really really slow.

Skins vs Cowboys: The Great, The Good, and the Not-So-Good

Huge win for the Skins as they take down their second consecutive divisional opponent.  And always nice to beat the Cowboys.  In Dallas.  On Thanksgiving.  In front of a national audience.  Sweet.

The Great

• RGIII.  One bad throw, everything else was superb.  70% completion percentage, 4 TDs, 300+ yards passing.  Forget rookie of the year, his rookie season may become an MVP season.
• Alfred Morris.  If RGIII gets MVP, maybe Alfred Morris can take rookie of the year.  Another 100-yard game.  He doesn't just have good vision, he has ESP can-see-the-future vision.  His ability to anticipate and then burst through even the smallest of holes is incredible.
• Pierre Garcon.  He's back!  Technically he was back last week, but he accounted for just 5 yards.  This week he has 93 yards on 5 receptions, including an amazingly acrobatic catch that he followed up by out-running the Cowboys secondary to the endzone.  The Skins are a different team with Garcon at receiver.  
• Kai Forbath.  The rookie kicker is 10 for 10 on the year, including today's game-sealing FG from 48 yards away.  He doesn't just make FGs, he routinely splits uprights.  And his directional kickoffs are ensuring short returns. 

Bye-Week Review: Revisiting This Season's Predictions

The Skins are 3-6 at the bye, and it's always fun to revisit predictions made at the season's beginning.  Predictions addressed win-loss record, RGIII, Alfred Morris, the defensive secondary, Billy Cundiff, and the general outlook for this year and beyond.

This blog looks to be batting about 80% so far.

Prediction: "The Skins will go 6-10"
Status: Looks more or less accurate

Prediction: "Alfred Morris will turn out to be a great fit for Shanahan's zone-blocking scheme."
Status: Accurate.  Morris is 4th in the league in rushing yards.

A 3-6 Record: What's Happening?

Skins lose a fairly ugly game to the Panthers, and have looked ugly two weeks in a row. What's going on?  In short: 1) film study by teams against RGIII, 2) very poor receiver play, and 3) a struggling defense.

But there's also hope.

1. In early September this blog predicted RGIII's production would "drop-off for the second half of the season" once teams had a chance to study film on RGIII's preferences and tendencies.  There's some evidence of this.

Skins vs. Steelers: Ugly

Skins struggle with the basics, and I mean pee wee league football basics:

• Catching - 12 drops and counting (Fox Sports says 10, I saw 12)
• Kicking - 12 yard punt and a blocked point-after-touchdown
• Tackling - missed tackles and more missed tackles (including some bad misses by London Fletcher)
• Juvenile Behavior - DeAngelo Hall acts like a frustrated12 year-old and gets ejected

Bright spots?

• RGIII kept his cool and played well 
• Alfred Morris stays his even-keeled self and shows some decisive, tough running
• Kai Forbath makes two more FGs, this time in tough field conditions

So the Skins bright spots come from three rookies ... at least there's hope for the future.

Skins vs. Buccaneers: The Great, The Good, and the Not-So-Good

The Great

• Alfred Morris.  He seems to get better each week.  This week he breaks 100 yards, including an impressive TD run.

The Good

• RGIII.  His accuracy is jaw-dropping.  It's not just that he completes more than 70% of his passes, but that he hits his receivers in stride, right in between the numbers, allowing them to add yards after the catch.  And several of his incomplete passes could have been caught.  But we can't call him Great given so many failed drives late in the game.  
• Ryan Kerrigan.  Not a dominant game, but a sack and a huge read and tackle to stop Tampa on 3rd down with 5 minutes remaining in the game.  

Skins vs. Bengals: The Great, The Good, and The Not-So-Good

The Great

• Rob Jackson.  With Orakpo out, Jackson gets the start and makes a positive impact with an interception for a TD and several aggressive hits.  

The Good

• RGIII. He had 1st half struggles, sometimes stayed in the pocket too long, and was credited with 3 fumbles.  Yet, once again RGIII showed amazing throwing accuracy, athleticism, and will to win, avoided INTs, and nearly brought the Skins back.  If his body can withstand the numerous hard hits, he'll eventually be great.
• Rushing yards.  213 rushing yards, a total that would normally be considered Great; but the way the Skins got these yards involved RGIII being hit hard numerous times as a runner or decoy.
• Fred Davis.  Some of the catches came while the Bengals played prevent defense late in the game, but nonetheless it's nice to see Davis get involved in the offense after a couple quiet games.  He logged 7 receptions for 90 yards.  

Redskins vs. Rams: The Great, The Good, and The Not-So-Good

The Great
- Not much this week.
- London Fletcher. Last week London had a sub-par game. This week he not only had six tackles, but a huge INT in the endzone and a huge strip to get the Skins the ball late in the 4th quarter with a chance to tie or win.

Skins vs. Saints: The Great, The Good, and the Not-So-Good

The Great
- RGIII.  Wow.  The poise, the decision-making, the athleticism.  Completions to 8 different receivers.  One of three QBs to pass for 300+ yards in his first NFL game (along with Peyton Manning and Cam Newton).  I've been high on RGIII since the beginning, but wow.
- Pierre Garcon before his injury provided exactly the run-after-the-catch play making Shanahan hoped for.

Skins vs. Saints: 1st Half

Wow. RGIII elicited many "wow"s in the first half. His TD pass under pressure to Garcon, his throw across his body from the left to right side of the field for a first down, his beautiful slant pass for a TD to Robinson.

Saints are now sniffing out the QB hand-off/run options play, and we haven't seen many of the vintage Shanahan stretch-run plays. It will be interesting to see if the Skins change up the running strategy for the second half, especially since Alfred Morris (who I now call Forward Morris) shined on these plays in pre-season.

Defense has been mostly impressive too. Too bad special teams has continued the tradition of allowing blocked kicks. 20-14 Skins at the half.