Objective, Data-Based Predictions for the Season

It's been a long time since the last Skins Analysis post, but it's important to go on record with my 2014 predictions before the season begins.  Why should you care?  First, I base my predictions on objective and careful consideration of available data, and second, I was pretty accurate last year.

Prediction #1.  RGIII will be markedly better this year than last.
This may sound obvious, but it's not.  Many news outlets -- including the Washington Post, NFL.com, ESPN, and CBS Sports -- have reported that RGIII looks like the second best QB on the Skins.  But don't be fooled by pre-season observations.  As described below, the best available data suggest that RGIII will look more like his 2012 self.

Cranky 'I Told You So's

This season has been frustrating to say the least.  Obviously, the mature thing to do is shout three huge I Told You Sos to Skins management.

1) I told you RGIII would not play like his normal self this year.  RGIII is currently ranked 20th in Win Probability Added/Game and 26th in completion percentage.  This "all in for week 1" stuff was a sham.

2) I told you the Skins will never have a good defense under Jim Haslett.  Haslett's most consistent trait going back to the late 90s is to produce defenses that underperform.  I told you this back in 2011, and tried again in 2012.  This year the Skins defense ranks 28th. Beginning with 2012 and working backward, the Skins defense has ranked 20th, 20th, and 24th.  Before Haslett arrived the Skins defense ranked 14th, 9th, and 8th.

3) I told you not to cut Graham Gano, that he was all-pro caliber, and that cutting him "feels like [cutting] David Akers all over again".  This year, Gano is 14/15 on FGs including 5/5 from 50+.  In addition, Gano leads the league in touchback percentage, while the Skins are ranked 30th -- if you don't think touchbacks matter, consider that they are equivalent in value to a QB sack.

So there it is Skins management.  I told you so.

Skins vs. Bear: The Great, the Good, and the Not-So-Good

The Skins beat a solid team, and hope remains that the Skins can still make something of this season. Still, today's wild win against the Bears had almost as many lows as highs.

The Great

• Jordan Reed.  The Skins rookie tight end out of Florida not only had 9 catches for 134 yards and a TD, but 0 drops (which cannot be said for the Skin's core of veteran receivers).  
• Rushing Game.  More than 200 yards on the ground between Alfred Morris, RGIII, and Roy Helu.

Not much to do but wait and see...

The first quarter of the season is over, and there's not much to say.

• Either RGIII's physical and mental readiness will continue to show improvement, or he'll stay rusty like many do the first year back from ACL repair.
• Either the Skins' defensive secondary will mature and work better together, or they'll continue to allow gobs and gobs of passing yards.
• Either Kai Forbath will return to his ultra-accurate form, or he'll continue to struggle with injuries, accuracy, or both.
• Either the Skins will emerge from the bye ready to take over a weak NFC East, or they'll continue the year as a weak team in a weak conference.  

We'll learn a lot tonight when the Skins take on the Cowboys.

Skins vs. Lions: The Great, The Good, and the Not-So-Good

At least the game was competitive...

The Great

• John Potter, maybe.  In relief of an injured Forbath, Potter was 2/2 on FGs and had 3 touchbacks on 4 kickoffs.  

The Good

• RGIII.  Very mixed game from RGIII. He had some strong, accurate passes, and showed a bit of speed. But he also had two very Rex Grossman-like turnovers: a throw-away that became an INT, and a fumble caused by no one.  

Skins vs. Eagles: The Great, the Good, and the Not-So-Good

The game was a mess, and I'm ready to move on, so let's get this over with.

The Great

• Ryan Kerrigan.  7 tackles, a sack, and a huge forced fumble that translated to 7 points.  Hopefully he passes his concussion test and stays healthy.
• Kai Forbath's Kickoffs.  Forbath, who struggled on kickoffs all of last year and all of pre-season, kicked 3 touchbacks on 4 tries.  Touchbacks are each worth an average of more than 10 yards on field position, so this is important long-term.
• Perry Riley.  Riley had a sack, a fumble recovery, and a thousand tackles.  

The Effects of Year 1 ACL Recovery On Passing Efficiency

If you just awoke from a deep sleep and haven't yet heard, RGIII has been medically cleared to start the regular season tomorrow night against the Eagles.  Let's assume that RGIII stays healthy and has no medical setbacks. Can we expect him to be at full efficiency his first year back from ACL/LCL surgery?

For answers, we have two reference points:
1) Tom Brady’s performance the year after his ACL injury, and
2) RGIII’s performance in college the year after his first ACL injury. 

When Should RGIII Play Again?

I continue to believe that Shanahan should have shouldered more responsibility for RGIII's injury. But it's time to look to the future.  When is it safe for RGIII to play again?

Hard question to answer, since RGIII appears to be superhuman. But but one approach is to compare RGIII's recovery timeline to that of Adrian Peterson, who recently made his own superhuman recovery from ACL surgery.

RGIII's Knee

My Facebook posts the hour before RGIII's removal from the game at 7:08pm:

• 6:10pm - "RGIII is too hurt to run, and too hurt to set and throw :( We need to put in Kirk Cousins."
• 6:25pm - "I'll believe RGIII is ok when he throws a pass more than 15 yards with accuracy."
• 6:45pm - "Still waiting for an accurate pass. He's too hurt to play, and this is painful to watch."
• 7:03pm - "I can't believe they've left RGIII in. I just can't believe it."

Skins vs. Seahawks: The Great, The Good, and The Not-So-Good

Against tradition, we start with the not-so-good.

The Not-So-Good

• Mike Shanahan.  Inexcusable, reckless, and stupid to let RGIII play so long.  
• Ryan Kerrigan.  Several times he gave up the edge allowing Russell Wilson to make a big play.

The Good

• Alfred Morris.  He ran hard and well as usual, too bad he didn't get more chances.  

Skins vs. Cowboys: The Great, The Good, and the Not-So-Good

The Great

• NFC East Champions!
• Alfred Morris.  200 yards rushing, 3 TDs, and sets the team record for rushing yards in a single season.
• Jim Haslett.  I've been hard on him in the past, but there's no question his schemes, particularly his ability to disguise coverage, has led directly to turnovers time and again.  The key interception by Rob Jackson was a direct result of Jackson faking blitz and dropping back without Romo noticing.

Why RGIII Is Great

Here's a wonderful story from the first Eagles game, courtesy of the Washington Post:

"Griffin made what could have been a crucial mistake — calling for a pass play out of the wrong formation. But he improvised, and hit Young, the fullback, for a six-yard touchdown pass ... Rather than celebrate on the field as he usually does — with a quick kneel-down, a short prayer and an index finger pointed to the sky — Griffin immediately sprinted to the sideline and apologized to Kyle Shanahan for getting the formation wrong."

Back in March we argued that RGIII was the right QB for the Skins not just because of his physical tools, but because he is "a student and perfects the little things." History is filled with immensely talented QBs who fizzled because they did not have the discipline or desire to perfect the details.

Skins vs. Giants: The Great, The Good, and the Not-So-Good

The Skins beat three consecutive NFC East opponents.  I checked my calendar, it's indeed 2012 and not 1991.

The Great

• Kyle Shanahan.  He wasn't on the field, but his impact loomed large.  Shanahan is a master at designing different plays that begin out of the same formation, and a master at disguising what's coming next.  The Giants' defense was kept off balance for much of the game. 
• Pierre Garcon.  Just a few weeks ago it seemed Garcon could miss the season. Tonight he had 8 receptions for 106 yards and a TD. 

Skins vs Cowboys: The Great, The Good, and the Not-So-Good

Huge win for the Skins as they take down their second consecutive divisional opponent.  And always nice to beat the Cowboys.  In Dallas.  On Thanksgiving.  In front of a national audience.  Sweet.

The Great

• RGIII.  One bad throw, everything else was superb.  70% completion percentage, 4 TDs, 300+ yards passing.  Forget rookie of the year, his rookie season may become an MVP season.
• Alfred Morris.  If RGIII gets MVP, maybe Alfred Morris can take rookie of the year.  Another 100-yard game.  He doesn't just have good vision, he has ESP can-see-the-future vision.  His ability to anticipate and then burst through even the smallest of holes is incredible.
• Pierre Garcon.  He's back!  Technically he was back last week, but he accounted for just 5 yards.  This week he has 93 yards on 5 receptions, including an amazingly acrobatic catch that he followed up by out-running the Cowboys secondary to the endzone.  The Skins are a different team with Garcon at receiver.  
• Kai Forbath.  The rookie kicker is 10 for 10 on the year, including today's game-sealing FG from 48 yards away.  He doesn't just make FGs, he routinely splits uprights.  And his directional kickoffs are ensuring short returns. 

RGIII: Accuracy Watch

After RGIII was drafted back in March we praised his many amazing attributes, including his passing accuracy which we twice labeled "insane."  His completion percentage and TD-to-INT ratio were among the very best ever in college football.  How has this attribute transferred to the NFL?  

Bye-Week Review: Revisiting This Season's Predictions

The Skins are 3-6 at the bye, and it's always fun to revisit predictions made at the season's beginning.  Predictions addressed win-loss record, RGIII, Alfred Morris, the defensive secondary, Billy Cundiff, and the general outlook for this year and beyond.

This blog looks to be batting about 80% so far.

Prediction: "The Skins will go 6-10"
Status: Looks more or less accurate

Prediction: "Alfred Morris will turn out to be a great fit for Shanahan's zone-blocking scheme."
Status: Accurate.  Morris is 4th in the league in rushing yards.

A 3-6 Record: What's Happening?

Skins lose a fairly ugly game to the Panthers, and have looked ugly two weeks in a row. What's going on?  In short: 1) film study by teams against RGIII, 2) very poor receiver play, and 3) a struggling defense.

But there's also hope.

1. In early September this blog predicted RGIII's production would "drop-off for the second half of the season" once teams had a chance to study film on RGIII's preferences and tendencies.  There's some evidence of this.

Skins vs. Steelers: Ugly

Skins struggle with the basics, and I mean pee wee league football basics:

• Catching - 12 drops and counting (Fox Sports says 10, I saw 12)
• Kicking - 12 yard punt and a blocked point-after-touchdown
• Tackling - missed tackles and more missed tackles (including some bad misses by London Fletcher)
• Juvenile Behavior - DeAngelo Hall acts like a frustrated12 year-old and gets ejected

Bright spots?

• RGIII kept his cool and played well 
• Alfred Morris stays his even-keeled self and shows some decisive, tough running
• Kai Forbath makes two more FGs, this time in tough field conditions

So the Skins bright spots come from three rookies ... at least there's hope for the future.

Skins vs. Vikings: The Great, The Good, and The Not-So-Good

The Great

• Who else but RGIII.  RGIII accounts for 320 yards of offense and 3 TDs.  He's also leading the league in completion percentage.
• Lorenzo Alexander.  The special teams ace is now a linebacker ace?  Helping to fill in for Orakpo, Alexander had 1.5 sacks, several QB pressures, and a huge fumble recovery.    

Skins vs. Buccaneers: The Great, The Good, and the Not-So-Good

The Great

• Alfred Morris.  He seems to get better each week.  This week he breaks 100 yards, including an impressive TD run.

The Good

• RGIII.  His accuracy is jaw-dropping.  It's not just that he completes more than 70% of his passes, but that he hits his receivers in stride, right in between the numbers, allowing them to add yards after the catch.  And several of his incomplete passes could have been caught.  But we can't call him Great given so many failed drives late in the game.  
• Ryan Kerrigan.  Not a dominant game, but a sack and a huge read and tackle to stop Tampa on 3rd down with 5 minutes remaining in the game.