Monday, December 31, 2012

How Good Are the Seahawks?

The Skins host the Seahawks next Sunday in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.  Like the Skins, the Seahawks are led by a rookie QB (Russell Wilson) and finished the season on an impressive winning streak.  So how good are they?

Some suggest the Seahawks are a mediocre team that has beaten up on weak opponents in the latter half of the season.  However, advanced analytics tell a different story: the Seahawks are the 3rd best team in the league.

There can be a tendency for the 'strange' stats used by Brian Burke and other NFL-oriented statisticians to be disregarded as "BS" (to quote a recent WashingtonPost.com comment).

But as a behavioral scientist who teaches statistics and research methodology, and as a lifetime Skins fan who cares about understanding this team and the NFL, I can testify to the usefulness of advanced analytics.  They are simply the smart, straightforward application of math to quantify the very things we want to know, such as how good a quarterback is or which defense is the best in the league.  

But you don't (and shouldn't) have to take my word for it.  The proof is in the prediction. Advanced analytics 'see' and predict things better than the pundits (much like advanced analytics predicted the 2012 Presidential election outcome perfectly).  

For example, when the Seahawks were just 5-4, who predicted that they were a superior team poised to finish the season 11-5 as one of the NFL's best? Advanced analytics did. Brian Burke had the 5-4 Seahawks rated as the 5th best team in the NFL.  

Incidentally, the Broncos were 6-3 at the time, a good but not dominant record.  At that time, who predicted the Broncos would end up 13-3 with the best record in the NFL? Advanced analytics did.  Brian Burke had the 6-3 Broncos rated as the #1 team in the NFL despite 8-1 records by both Houston and Atlanta.

Returning to the Seahawks, the best available data -- which come from smart analytics, not pundits or color commentators -- suggest that Seattle is very very good, the 3rd best team in the league.  The Skins are no slouch, coming into the final week of the season ranked #8.

Add home-field advantage and a healthier RGIII to the equation, and the Skins and Seahawks are a virtual toss-up.

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