No to Kyle Orton

The Denver Broncos just released Kyle Orton, and many wondered if Orton would represent an improvement at QB for the Skins. I wondered the same thing, and checked out the Advanced Stats. For QBs, I like the statistic Win Probability Added/Game (WPA/G) because it not only captures how often QBs make good plays, but it takes the 'game manager' factor into account -- for example, throwing for 8 yards is worth more on 3rd-and-7 than on 3rd-and-15, and throwing a TD pass in a close game is worth more than in garbage time.

This year, Orton struggled with a lousy -0.09 WPA/G, which ranks him 32nd in the league. But he was in a new offense, so I looked at previous years also.

In 2010, Orton's WPA/G was 0.01, 23rd in the league. Donovan McNabb was slightly better (0.04), and average QBs like Jason Campbell (0.10) and Matt Cassell (0.09) were clearly better. In 2009 Orton ranked 17th in the league in WPA/G.

For comparison, Rex Grossman has a 2011 WPA/G of 0.04, and top 10 QBs are usually between 0.2 and 0.4. Thus, there's no reason to think Kyle Orton would be a noticeable step up from Rex Grossman. There's also no reason to believe Kyle Orton will ever be a top 10 or even top 15 QB.

I wanted to get excited about him, but I think the Skins should pass.

*Update: the Skins did not file a claim to get Orton off waivers, and Orton ended up in Kansas City, where we can expect him to provide average to below-average QB play.