The Skins might be just two ingredients away from respectability: a starting-caliber QB and a reliable offensive line. This raises a key question: from where can they get a starting-caliber QB?
There are, of course, two primary sources for QBS: free agency and the draft.
Ironically, one starting QB likely to become a free agent is Jason Campbell. The Raiders just paid a high price to acquire Carson Palmer from the Bengals, and Palmer is playing well so far. It's hard to see the Raiders holding onto Campbell. According to Advanced NFL Stats, Campbell was 10th in Win Probability Added per Game when he went down, not too shabby.
But, seriously, it would seem quite unlikely for Shanahan to bring Campbell back after letting him go, or for Campbell to want to come back to DC after his experience here.
So who else?
David Garrard will be available. Any takers? {crickets} Some have suggested that Peyton Manning may end up in a Redskins uniform, including Adam Shefter and Michael Kun. I'd have mixed feelings on that. On the one hand, the Skins have been down that road before -- paying big for aging stars -- and Peyton may have a serious long-term injury. On the other hand, he's Peyton Manning.
Barring a surprise, it does not appear the QB of the future will emerge in free agency. So what about the draft?
Some refer to the draft as the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Unfortunately the Skins are out of the running for Luck. The Skins are bad, but they've already won 3 games, and will be out of range to draft Luck, who will probably go to the Colts (thus making Manning expendable -- see above).
The draft has many promising QB prospects. Matt Barkley from USC is considered by most to be the #2 prospect after Luck. However, from my perspective his accuracy (63% completion pct) and TD-to-INT ratio (26 and 12) are not elite. Landry Jones from Oklahoma looks better on these two key stats (66%; 38 and 12). Of course, nothing can touch Luck's 71% completion pct, and 32 and 8 TD-to-INT ratio.
Then there is the unexpected. And the unexpected, by definition, is not something reasonable people can forecast. But let's think about it anyway, what might happen to make a team willing to part with their good QB...
- Baltimore fans have never been fair to Joe Flacco, and Flacco openly criticized the Ravens coaching staff last year when they let Jim Zorn go; perhaps Flacco could be let go if the Ravens end the year poorly.
- The Houston Texans have never made the playoffs in their franchise history. Now Matt Schaub will miss the rest of the season with an injury, and Matt Leinart takes over. What if Leinart plays well in his absence and leads the Texans to their first ever playoff run? As good as Schaub is, he only led the Texans to a 6-10 record last year. Kyle Shanahan was Schaub's previous offensive coordinator. Perhaps a reunion could be worked out?
- The San Diego Chargers have suffered for years from not meeting expectations. This year they are faltering again, just when it looked like they might be hitting their stride. Philip Rivers is having a bad year relatively speaking, currently ranked 24th in Win Probability Added per Game. His turnovers have directly led to recent defeats. Could the Chargers move in a new direction?
These three scenarios are far-fetched. All in all, there is slim pickings for QBs in 2012. But I think there is a clear option.
The Skins best bet is to draft Landry Jones from Oklahoma. He plays against good competition, completes two-thirds of his passes, minimizes turnovers, and he'll be available when the Redskins are ready with their first pick in the 2012 draft.
Here are the questions related to Peyton Manning if they go in that direction:
ReplyDelete1) Will Peyton Manning overcome his neck surgery?
2) Will Peyton Manning be able to peacefully coexist with Andrew Luck, knowing Luck will eventually take his job?
(This is the key question as to whether Manning looks elsewhere. Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre did not get along in GB. Favre, however, flamed out on other teams. Also IN may want to go in a complete different direction, given how horribly their season has turned out.)
(On a separate note, if I were in IN, I would have significant concerns. That the team can't win a game without Manning would make me wonder whether there need to be larger changes, including at coach. It says to me that the team was too dependent on one player and didn't address other weaknesses).
3) Will Peyton Manning fit in the Redskins' offensive schemes?
(This is the most important question to ask if they decide to pursue him. Kyle Shanahan needs to figure out if he can play in their offensive scheme. You could sign Tom Brady but still get crappy performance if you put him in an offensive scheme that doesn't fit his skillset well. So the question they need to ask themselves is, "Can Peyton Manning fit in the offense we want"?).
4) Will Peyton Manning, unlike Donovan McNabb, work hard and have a decent working relationship with Kyle Shanahan?
5) Will Peyton Manning work hard and actually win, or will he adopt the "entitled" mindset that players like Albert Haynesworth adopted?
(Will Manning rest on his laurels or actually try to get a championship here? That is another key concern.)
6) Will Peyton Manning be able to play for 2-3 years until the Redskins can find a good QB in the draft?
(The question for the Redskins here seems to be whether they can get 2-3 years out of a player like Manning until they can find someone they really, really want in the draft. If the Redskins improve their offensive line, can Manning play well enough to get the Redskins to .500 or better?)
Along with QB I think OL is a major problem they need to work on. I am not convinced on signing Manning; but, if they were to use him as a stopgap, while investing heavily in the offensive line, I could hypothetically support that. The line continues to be a problem; and, without an effective offensive line, even a QB like Tom Brady would face problems. But a lot of that depends on whether Manning recovers sufficiently from his surgeries, is a good fit for the team's offensive scheme, still wants to work hard, and can get along with Kyle Shanhan.
The QB-rich draft was last year, and the Skins choked it. I think they will finish the year with 3 wins, and could be as few as 2 slots away from the #1 pick. I'd trade whatever it took to get that #1 pick and Luck.
ReplyDeleteLuck's clearly the best choice, hard to see the Colts (or whoever drafts first) giving him up. Someone asked Cindy Boren in her chat after the Cowboys game about our chances of getting Luck. Her response:
ReplyDelete"1) Take your list [of top QBs available]. 2) Go to the top. 3) Cross off Luck.
That's not happening. So think about Barkley. Or whomever is going to be available around the sixth or seventh pick."
Personally, I'm not sure Barkley is the next best choice. But sadly not much hope of us getting Luck.
Which makes this years draft and even bigger disappointment. Such a rich QB class. What a waste. The Colts understand the importance of a franchise QB, which is why they won't trade the slot. They went from 16-0 with to 0-16 without (I exaggerate, but you get the point) and they'll prob go straight back to the playoffs with luck. Meanwhile Shennanigans thought they could get by with Grossman or Beck. They should be fired merely for that incompetence.
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