Friday, September 2, 2011

Beck or Grossman?

John Beck and Rex Grossman are competing for the starting QB position. Understandably, the Shanahans have been measured in their comments on the relative performance of the two QBs, offering broad praise for both but not much else. For example, Kyle Shanahan recently said: "I think both of them in their time playing have done a good job ... I’m confident with either one of them to go. Both give us a good chance to win games."

However, I think there are several key points -- unspoken elephants in the room -- that will influence the Shanahans' decision:

- Grossman knows Kyle’s offense better
Grossman makes more correct decisions more quickly than Beck in terms of where to throw the ball on any given play. This isn’t necessarily Beck’s fault since he has had one year less in Kyle’s system, but it is what it is. Grossman’s command of the offense was evident last year, in which he threw for over 300 yards twice in the three games he started.

- Grossman is turnover prone.
In his one full season as the Bears’ starter, Grossman threw 20 INTs and fumbled 8 times — all in one season! Last year for the Skins Grossman had 8 turnovers in just 4 games (4 fumbles and 4 INTs). The Skins lost both of Rex’s 300-yard games in part because Rex had 3 turnovers in each. As noted in an earlier post about Tim Hightower, no single statistic predicts wins and losses better than turnovers.

- Beck has more upside.
The Shanahan’s have been high on Beck since 2007 and think he has tremendous potential. Personally, I thought Beck’s better footwork and fundamentals were visibly apparent when watching the two play this preseason. Beck also is said to have the stronger arm and quicker feet.

- Beck is more accurate.
If we want to compare raw ability regarding accuracy, it makes the most sense to compare the two in their final collegiate years, when they both had full command of the offense and were at the top of their games. Beck’s completion pct was 69%, and Grossman’s 57%. Grossman posted a similar completion pct last year in his 4 games with the Skins (56%). For what it's worth, this preseason Grossman and Beck have posted similar completion pcts (64% vs. 63%, respectively). In the end there’s not a whole lost of NFL data to go on, but I think the evidence suggests Beck's completion pct would be 5-10 pts higher than Grossman’s.

Conclusion: I have no idea, but it’s fun to put an opinion out there, so .... I think the Skins should go with Beck. In the beginning Beck's performance may not be as good as Grossman's because Beck doesn't have the same comfort level in the offense. In his first several games Beck will miss more open receivers and perhaps throw an interception or two more. Over the long-haul, however, Beck would gain the experience that Grossman already has, and would be expected to complete more balls, have fewer turnovers, and more often use his feet to turn broken plays into positive yardage.

As always, comments welcome and encouraged...

1 comment:

  1. Breaking news this Labor Day from Jason La Confora ... the Redskins will start Grossman. http://blogs.nfl.com/2011/09/05/redskins-say-grossman-will-be-week-1-starter/

    To me this signals a "win-now" attitude, as Grossman clearly runs the offense better than Beck. But over the long-term, Grossman has the worse downside (turnovers) and Beck has the best upside (talent and poise). If Grossman puts up his customary 2 turnovers per game, we might see Beck sooner rather than later.

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