Saturday, September 17, 2011

London Fletcher: Best Linebacker in the NFL?

Now entering his 14th season, London Fletcher didn't make his first Pro-Bowl until 2009 and is often referred to as "underrated." So how good is he?

To answer the question we can use the statistic +EPA/G. +EPA/G indicates "a defender’s impact on the outcome of his team’s games" by combining things like tackles, sacks, interceptions, forced fumbles, and passes defended into a single computation.

In 2010, London Fletcher had the highest +EPA/G in the NFL among linebackers: 4.53. This was better than Ray Lewis (3.65), Clay Matthews (3.62), Brian Urlacher (3.56), and every other linebacker.

To put +EPA/G in context, elite linebackers score at about a 4, average linebackers about 2.5, and not-so-good linebackers about 1. The 2nd best linebacker in 2010 was James Harrison, with a 4.43 -- 0.1 below London Fletcher.

What's interesting is that last year was Fletcher's best with the Skins. Going backwards in time, his three previous years had very good but lower +EPA/Gs of 3.12, 2.94, and 3.09.

It would be tempting to conclude that Fletcher is getting better with age, but another possibility is that Haslett's 3-4 defense is an ideal fit for Fletcher, and a better fit than the 4-3 Williams/Blache defense used during Fletcher's first three seasons with the Skins.

Fletcher is off to another good start this year, posting a +EPA/G of 4.0 last week. Hopefully another stellar year for Fletcher is underway.

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