Taking Stock of Key Redskins Players

If you think mathematicians have something to contribute to football analysis, read on...

I'm in love with the website Advanced NFL Stats because they produce mathematically meaningful statistics. For example, Win Probability Added per Game (WPA/G) indicates how a player affects the probability that his team will win. Using WPA/G, here's a look at the performance of key Redskins players through the season's first two games.

Quarterback. Rex Grossman's WPA/G is 0.24, 8th best in the league. Rex is just behind Matthew Stafford (0.30) and just ahead of Drew Brees (0.21). Not bad at all.

Tight End. Fred Davis is tops in the league among tight-ends with a WPA/G of 0.21. Fred has come a long way since oversleeping for practice in his rookie year, and seems poised to become a star.

Wide Receivers. The Skins top receiver is (drum roll) Santana Moss, with a WPA/G of 0.18. This is 13th best in the league. Jabar Gaffney is the next best Redskins with a WPA/G of 0.09. Given how the Skins spread the ball around to multiple receivers, it's not surprising that no single Skins receiver stands out.

Running Back. Tim Hightower's WPA/G is 0.02, which places him 27th out of 49 RBs with enough carries to be analyzed. Given Hightower's low yard-per-carry (3.7) at this point in the season, the statistics is perhaps not surprising. Last year, though, mainly due to fumbles, Hightower was 4th worst in the league in WPA/G, so he is improving simply through ball security. Roy Helu doesn't yet have enough carries to be listed.

Let's turn to the defense, starting with linebacker. Defense uses a variation of the WPA statistic, +WPA.

First up, Linebacker. Last week I did a post on London Fletcher's stellar 2010. This year London continues to play well, with a +WPA of 0.30, 11th best in the NFL. However, the Redskins also boast the #2 linebacker in the league through two games, Ryan Kerrigan, with a +WPA of 0.53. Given Kerrigan's HUGE plays, including an interception returned for a TD and key sacks and QB hits, this rating is not surprising. Orakpo has a very average +WPA of 0.06, probably because opposing offenses key on blocking him, leaving Kerrigan available to make plays.

Defensive Line. The Redskins defense is set up for the Defensive Linemen to occupy blockers while the Linebackers make the plays. It's not surprising, then, that the Skins Linemen barely show up in the +WPA rankings. Barry Colefield is the only one of note, and shows up with the 22nd best +WPA (0.11).

Secondary. The secondary is hard to quantify for +WPA because so many plays involving the secondary mean something went wrong. For example, if a Safety or Cornerback is making a tackle, more often than not the offense has gained a lot of yards which is why a safety or cornerback is making the tackle and not a Lineman or Linebacker. Consequently, +WPA only focuses on a defense's good plays, and quantifies for each player how much they contributed to those good plays. While this approach makes some sense, it also means that giving up a 70-yard TD pass will not affect a player's +WPA. Consequently, it's my opinion that +WPA for the secondary is not a meaningful statistic.

Summary. In short, after 2 games the Skins have a very good QB, an average RB, good Wide Receivers, an elite Tight End, an invisible Defensive Line, two elite Linebackers, and a secondary that can't be quantified.