Unpredictability

The NFL season is about to begin. This is the time of year to make predictions, which makes me realize how much about the Redskins is unpredictable. So much could be really really good or really really bad: QB, RB, defensive secondary, nose tackle, interior offensive line depth. Here are the reasons for uncertainty (with a prediction for the season at the end):

1) QB -- Grossman runs the offense well, but also excels in fumbling and throwing interceptions. There will be many games of 300+ passing yards and 2 turnovers .. do the Skins win or lose those games?

2) RB -- Hightower is explosive and could be dominant in Shanahan's zone-blocking scheme. But like Grossman he has a track-record of fumbling. If Hightower holds onto the ball he could be the league's top rusher, if he fumbles as often as he has in the recent past the Skins won't be able to rely on him as a starter.

3) Secondary -- The Redskins secondary has the potential to be both dominant and porous. On paper they are dominant. Oshiomogho Atogwe is considered a significant upgrade at free safety, and John Wilson a significant upgrade over Carlos "Hands of Stone" Rogers at cornerback. LaRon Landry and DeAngelo Hall remain at strong safety and cornerback, respectively, and are among the best in the league at their positions. But there are big buts (not those kind) ... Landry is injured, hasn't practiced at full speed in 2011, and is out for at least week 1 and maybe longer. Atogwe was injured for most of camp, seems healthy now, but had limited time to get reps in a new system with new teammates. Even when everyone is healthy, it may take time for this group to gel given that they have had 0 opportunity to practice as a complete unit. Mistakes are made when players lack experience communicating with each other in game conditions.

4) Nose Tackle -- The success of a 3-4 defense begins with the Nose Tackle. This is because run-stopping and QB-pressuring begin with the NT occupying blockers and allowing ends and linebackers to run free. The Redskins have a significant upgrade at starting NT in Barry Cofield. But they have exactly one backup NT, rookie 7th round draft pick Chris Neild. Neild seems like a great guy, good work ethic, good potential. But he's not a starting caliber NT. Should Cofield go down with an injury, even for a game or two, does the defense suffer a significant drop-off?

5) Offensive Line -- The offensive line also appears to be an upgrade, with personnel tailored to execute Shanahan's zone-blocking schemes. The three interior linemen are LG Kory Lichtensteiger, C Will Montgomery, and RG Chris Chester, not necessarily an all-pro cast, but individuals hand-selected by Shanahan to execute his scheme, which emphasizes movement, agility, and technique more than size. But as the Redskins know all too well, injuries happen on the offensive line. And right now there is virtually zero depth at the interior positions. Erik Cook, a 2nd year player from last year's practice squad, is the back-up at all three positions. One or two injuries could significantly setback the Redskins ability to run and pass block. Or, this new O-line stays healthy, runs Shanahan's schemes to perfection, and paves the way for a high-powered offense. Like everything else, it could go either way...


Oh, my prediction: Redskins go 8-8. We beat some good teams, lose to some bad teams. Our offense generates lots of yards but also lots of turnovers (in part due to Grossman who excels at both yards and turnovers). Injuries are a theme on defense (secondary) and offense (offensive line with little interior depth). John Beck ends the season as starting QB because Grossman proves just too inconsistent with ball security, even though he generally runs the offense very well. Graham Gano plays at an all-pro level. In general the season is seen as a step forward because the foundation is solid, both the scheme and personnel, and with a modest upgrade in personnel and a little bit better luck with injuries, the 2012 season looks quite promising.

What's your prediction?