Tim Hightower: How excited should we be?

Tim Hightower has been explosive, dynamic, productive, and many other wonderful things this pre-season. He's averaging 6+ yards-per-carry, and maybe, just maybe, the combination of a) an explosive one-cut runner like Hightower and b) Shanahan's perennially successful zone-blocking scheme will result in a dominant Redskins rushing attack.

But I'm nervous. Hightower has always been an explosive runner, this is nothing new. Last year, among the 55 RBs with 60 or more carries, Hightower was ranked 8th in Yards Per Carry. The problem is that Hightower has been fumble-prone. And as many statistical analyses have shown, no single statistic predicts wins and losses better than turnovers.

There are those who find ways to statistically combine all relevant indicators of performance -- including yards per carry, fumbles, and many many other factors -- into a single statistic. One example of such a statistic is "Win Probability Added" (Source Link).

Win Probability Added allows us to see why Hightower was considered expendable by the Cardinals.

Despite being ranked 8th in Yards Per Carry last year, Hightower was ranked 53rd in Win Probability Added. In other words, despite a high Yards Per Carry average, Hightower was ranked 3rd worst in overall contribution to his team's probability of winning. This was largely due to fumbles.

Hightower fumbled 4 times in 153 rushing attempts, which would pace him to have 8 fumbles every 300 carries. In contrast, the top 10 rushers averaged just 2 fumbles every 300 carries. 8 fumbles would have placed Hightower dead last among the top 10 rushers, and tied for dead-last among the top 40 rushers. Unless he stops fumbling, Hightower's turnovers may prove more important than his ability to gain lots and lots of yards.

Some running backs are known for having successfully learned not to fumble, such as Tiki Barber. Tiki fumbled often early in his career, and eventually learned to stop fumbling and become an all-pro every down back. However, in order to stop fumbling, Tiki also is known to have altered his conditioning program and his technique for holding the ball. In contrast, Hightower does not appear to be taking any steps at all to decrease his fumbles. In a recent Washington Post article titled "Tim Hightower, Mike Shanahan not worried about fumbles," Hightower was quoted as saying:

“I focus on playing football and being a running back ... A running back is about playing with instinct. You know what you’re doing, and from there it’s instinct and you play 110 miles per hour, and you just play football. That’s when you succeed ... From a running back’s perspective, it’s easy to say, ‘OK, you’ve got to think about ball security.’ But as soon as you focus on that, your brain can’t focus on three things at one time. Your mind can’t focus on ball security, and run, and cut. It has to be a feel thing.”

This did not make me happy. I was hoping Hightower would describe the many drills he was doing to reduce fumbles. Instead he explained that he just doesn't have time to think about fumbles.

However, we can end on a positive note. The good news is that, on average, the number of fumbles a running back has in one season is barely correlated (r=.04) with the number of fumbles he has the next season (Source Link). In other words, Hightower's fumbles in recent seasons might be a statistical anomaly rather than a pattern. And Hightower's talent and explosiveness have never been in question. If a non-fumbling Hightower has a full season in Shanahan's zone-blocking scheme, we could see records fall.

As always, comments welcome and encouraged...